Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.344885 1.523958 1.713588 1.928899 2.166119 2.419028 2.708580
2025-01-19 1.065696 1.305379 1.575224 1.899824 2.277885 2.702469 3.213434
2025-01-26 0.897004 1.182041 1.521670 1.952112 2.478694 3.097310 3.873998
2025-02-02 0.754065 1.068456 1.464458 1.992108 2.668082 3.495825 4.575717
2025-02-09 0.626744 0.955632 1.393493 2.006132 2.826412 3.870791 5.282552
2025-02-16 0.524324 0.860218 1.332482 2.025145 2.992139 4.268796 6.051656
2025-02-23 0.422660 0.748993 1.234534 1.981607 3.068932 4.556478 6.700349
2025-03-02 0.330982 0.636324 1.118204 1.896724 3.078028 4.751767 7.238925
2025-03-09 0.274770 0.570328 1.062924 1.894780 3.204759 5.118771 8.039429
2025-03-16 0.223736 0.503032 0.995346 1.864609 3.284730 5.422889 8.770168
2025-03-23 0.195554 0.472088 0.984081 1.923439 3.506614 5.950890 9.859379
2025-03-30 0.157021 0.412234 0.912475 1.871271 3.544665 6.201154 10.548974
2025-04-06 0.128330 0.367440 0.864083 1.858349 3.654131 6.582774 11.484114
2025-04-13 0.103221 0.323917 0.810717 1.829398 3.733446 6.922455 12.377290
2025-04-20 0.089166 0.303133 0.800070 1.879464 3.955205 7.508559 13.695433
2025-04-27 0.076293 0.281709 0.784419 1.917727 4.159030 8.078342 15.020489
2025-05-04 0.063849 0.257500 0.758154 1.930918 4.317226 8.580477 16.262361
2025-05-11 0.053700 0.236603 0.735716 1.949019 4.485828 9.110674 17.579189
2025-05-18 0.042545 0.208008 0.688513 1.906592 4.531772 9.425972 18.547029
2025-05-25 0.032123 0.176924 0.627720 1.824193 4.488556 9.575792 19.235128
2025-06-01 0.026332 0.160493 0.602985 1.822159 4.609302 10.032858 20.483387
2025-06-08 0.020866 0.142370 0.569111 1.792829 4.668950 10.377712 21.547117
2025-06-15 0.018308 0.136110 0.569633 1.849687 4.919106 11.098806 23.322044